Miss World 2000

Mukesh Garg suggested that the Miss World 2000 contest would be a likely event for notice by large numbers of people, and that we should see evidence of a resonance in the global consciousness.

On Sun, 26 Nov 2000, mukesh garg wrote:

> Another such event to be observed closely is Miss World contest 
> to be held on Nov 30 in London.  In 1997,it was seen by an estimated 
> 2.5 billion > people in 155 countries which was a record for any 
> TV show.  Let us see what results we get after this "global event".

That sounds good.  I will make an entry in the prediction registry.  
In order to properly assess the event, I need more specific 
information, in particular the precise time when the most central 
or important aspect begins and ends.  There should be a special
part of the program, such as the presentation of the winner, which
really draws the most coherent interest.  If you can give me
those times, we can make a formal prediction.  

Date: Thu, 30 Nov 2000 10:32:32 -0500 (EST)
From: mukesh garg 
To: [email protected]
Subject: Global Event

Dear Dr. Nelson,

Read your msg. just now.  The 50th Miss World contest will commence today
(30th NOV) at 8.00 pm (local London time) at Millenium Dome in London.
The program shall last for about two & half hours.  The final winner is 
declared just 5 minutes before the end.

This program is not being telecast live in Malaysia.  So I can not watch it
live.  Later when they show the recorded program, I shall watch & note down
the exact timings and let you know.

Regards,

Mukesh

The prediction is by both of us, and for the formal event, we will look at the last five minutes of the program, from 10:25 to 10:30 London time, with medium expectation and one-second resolution. We will also assess the full two and a half hour of the complete broadcast in an exploratory mode.

The data taken during the declaration of the winner shows a marginally significant trend, with Chisquare = 333.86, on 300 df, for a probability of 0.087. The figure shows a steady departure from expectation.

For context, the next figure shows the full program. This too has a positive trend, with some extreme segments (which are not identified with any particular events. The Chisquare is 9136.2 on 9000 df, and the p-value is 0.155.